Modelling input-output flows of severe acute respiratory syndrome in mainland China
subject: Input-output flows, spatial interaction model, spatial dependence, Spillover Effects, Income difference
description: Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) originated in China in 2002, and it spread to 26 provinces in mainland China and 32 countries across five continents in a matter of months. This outbreak resulted in 774 deaths. However, the spatial features and potential determinants of SARS input-output flows remain unclear. Methods We used an adjusted spatial interaction model to examine the spatial effects and potential factors associated with SARS input-output flows. Results The presence of origin-based spatial dependence positively affected SARS input-output flows from the neighbours of the origin regions. Two components of the input-output flows, migrant and hospitalization flows, exhibited distinctive features. The origin-based and destination-based spatial dependence positively affected migrant flows (i.e., due to those seeking jobs) from the neighbours of origin and destination locations. Similarly, the destination-based spatial dependence also positively affected hospitalization flows (i.e., due to those seeking treatment) from the neighbours of destination regions. However, the origin-to-destination based spatial dependence negatively affected hospitalisation flows from the neighbours of origin-to-destination regions. The direct effects accounted for 78 % of the SARS input-output flows, which was 3.56-fold greater than the indirect effects. Differences in regional income drove the SARS input-output flows. Therefore, urban income had a positive effect, whereas rural income had a negative effect. Total interregional flows increased by 3.54 % with a 1 % increase in urban income, and intraregional flows increased by 8.35 %. In contrast, the total interregional flows decreased by 3.38 % with a 1 % increase in rural income, and intraregional flows declined by 2.29 %. Railway capacity, per person gross domestic product (PGDP), urban rate and the law of distance decay also affected the input-output flows. Conclusions Our results confirm that the SARS i…
creator: Li Wang, Jinfeng Wang, Cheng-Dong Xu, Tiejun Liu
source: BMC Public Health
publisher: BMC
date: 2016
language: EN
identifier: DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-2867-6
coverage: Public aspects of medicine