Estimate of the excess of the total deaths reported in 2020 versus the reported deaths from COVID-19 (SARS-CoV2) in Peru during the months of March, April and May 2020.
mortality, covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, pandemics
Methods: We compared the gap between the National Death System (SINADEF) with the oficial reported deaths from COVID -19 from march 1st to may 31th, 2020; Violent deaths (homicide, suicide, traffic accident; other accidents and unknown deaths) were excluded. To estimate the deaths baseline was used a seasonal linear regression, from January 1st, 2017 to December 31th, 2019 with a 95% confidence intervals. The deaths reported in the National Death System was compared with the baseline deaths. The excess of deaths reported was estimated by “Simple Difference method”. Results: The research outcomes showed that the excess of total deaths, from 1st March to 31th may, 2020 is 2.24 times greater than the oficial number of deaths reported by COVID-19. Conclusions: The finded differences may be associated directly with a unregistered deaths by COVID-19 and another general death causes related with failures in our Public Health Sistem during the Pandemic period.
Pedro Fidel Grillo Rojas, Roberto Romero Onofre
Revista de la Facultad de Medicina Humana