1049 10 20655 https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/4e859883f650bf5e56b0ccc72ffbf9f0.pdf 931c1a9cfd801118709371cb58ddd506 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Julio Emilio Marco-Franco, Natividad Guadalajara-Olmeda, Silvia González-de Julián, David Vivas-Consuelo Description An account of the resource Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60–69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87–1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65–70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource covid-19, Case fatality rate, herd immunity, Mathematical epidemiology, health care planning, Health economy Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3390/su12135228 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Biotemas Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Environmental effects of industries and plants, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/898a58acbbb6fb9c88bfe579b5594269.pdf 9996c2a5cc40e76010b90169f9e0ca8b Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Integrating in situ Measurements and City Scale Modelling to Assess the COVID–19 Lockdown Effects on Emissions and Air Quality in Athens, Greece Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Evangelos Gerasopoulos, Aikaterini Bougiatioti, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Dimitris G. Kaskaoutis, Georgios Grivas, Iasonas Stavroulas, Eleni Liakakou, Panayiotis Kalkavouras, Eleni Athanasopoulou, Anastasia Kakouri, Jennifer Bailey, Michel Ramonet Description An account of the resource The lockdown measures implemented worldwide to slow the spread of the COVID–19 pandemic have allowed for a unique real–world experiment, regarding the impacts of drastic emission cutbacks on urban air quality. In this study we assess the effects of a 7–week (23 March–10 May, 2020) lockdown in the Greater Area of Athens, coupling in situ observations with estimations from a meteorology–atmospheric chemistry model. Measurements in central Athens during the lockdown were compared with levels during the pre– and post–lockdown 3–week periods and with respective levels in the four previous years. We examined regulatory pollutants as well as CO2, black carbon (BC) and source–specific BC components. Models were run for pre–lockdown and lockdown periods, under baseline and reduced–emissions scenarios. The in–situ results indicate mean concentration reductions of 30–35% for traffic–related pollutants in Athens (NO2, CO, BC from fossil fuel combustion), compared to the pre–lockdown period. A large reduction (53%) was observed also for the urban CO2 enhancement while the reduction for PM2.5 was subtler (18%). Significant reductions were also observed when comparing the 2020 lockdown period with past years. However, levels rebounded immediately following the lift of the general lockdown. The decrease in measured NO2 concentrations was reproduced by the implementation of the city scale model, under a realistic reduced–emissions scenario for the lockdown period, anchored at a 46% decline of road transport activity. The model permitted the assessment of air quality improvements on a spatial scale, indicating that NO2 mean concentration reductions in areas of the Athens basin reached up to 50%. The findings suggest a potential for local traffic management strategies to reduce ambient exposure and to minimize exceedances of air quality standards for primary pollutants. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource Pandemic, traffic, Mapping, urban air-pollution, TAPM, chemical transport model Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3390/atmos11111174 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Meteorology. Climatology https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/629ee70ab91347ac94898b499af49e14.pdf 8dfa79232fdb73279ce48f47ba48ca69 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Scientific production on COVID-19 in Cuban medical journals during the first 90 days after the start of the pandemic Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Roberto Zayas Mujica, Soraya Madero Durán, Beatriz Rodríguez Alonso, José Enrique Alfonso Manzanet Description An account of the resource Introduction: Since the first case of SARS-CoV-2 was confirmed, the pandemic has experienced an almost uncontrollable increase in the number of cases.  The scientific production plays a key role in the fight against the necessary control and eradication of the pandemic.  From the very beginning, thousands of articles per day are produced at international level; furthermore, editorials and databases have made a great effort to give due priority and visibility to these contributions.  Cuba has made significant efforts in this respect.Objective: To characterize the scientific production on COVID-19 in Cuban medical journals during the first ninety days after the start of the pandemic in Cuba.Material and Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study aimed at analyzing 100% of the scientific medical journals was conducted.  Variables such as documental typology, institutional and collaborative affiliations, subject matter, country and time of publication, among others were identified.Results:  In total, 58 % of the articles were published in medical journals and 31,1 % was a contribution by Medisur Journal, University of Medical Sciences in Cienfuegos.  In addition, 77,8 % of the articles were written by Cuban health researchers, 22,6 % of the articles were Letters to the Editor and 20,8 % were original articles.Conclusions: Over the period studied, the national scientific production in Cuban medical journals is low taking into account that the Letters to the Editor are not actual research articles.  Some subject areas in Medical Sciences such as Family Medicine, which could have contributed with their experiences in research work within the community, have not produced any scientific article during this period of time. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource coronavirus, covid-19, pandemias, ciência, ciencia de información médica, producción científica y tecnología nacional Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Biotemas Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Public aspects of medicine, Medicine (General) https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/64eea4b825db7e67ea750901a9534c84.pdf d157e028f9005298a0dd60f0af74b7b0 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Selección organizacional: resiliencia y desempeño de las pymes en la era de la COVID-19 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Rigoberto García-Contreras, David Valle-Cruz, Rosa Azalea Canales-García Description An account of the resource El objetivo del presente artículo fue analizar la perspectiva actual de las pymes ante la crisis de la COVID-19, así como analizar la asociación e incidencia de la resiliencia organizacional en su desempeño durante este periodo crítico. Para probar las hipótesis, se realizó un estudio transversal con una muestra de 112 responsables de pymes en dos países de América Latina (México y Chile). Los métodos utilizados fueron análisis descriptivo de datos, correlación bivariada y redes neuronales artificiales. Los resultados descriptivos demuestran el impacto de la crisis de la COVID-19; además, los resultados prueban la relación e incidencia positiva de la resiliencia en el desempeño de las pymes. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2021 Subject The topic of the resource covid-19, desempeño, redes neuronales artificiales, Resiliencia organizacional, selección organizacional Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.18046/j.estger.2021.158.4291 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Biotemas Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Business https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/7c08123ed6ee4b59789cae8c9daa6c99.pdf 5a8b9216bcd8b54bc1b0cff60860745a Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Videoconferencing Psychotherapy for Panic Disorder and Agoraphobia: Outcome and Treatment Processes From a Non-randomized Non-inferiority Trial Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Stéphane Bouchard, Stéphane Bouchard, Micheline Allard, Geneviève Robillard, Stéphanie Dumoulin, Stéphanie Dumoulin, Tanya Guitard, Tanya Guitard, Claudie Loranger, Claudie Loranger, Isabelle Green-Demers, André Marchand, Patrice Renaud, Louis-Georges Cournoyer, Giulia Corno Description An account of the resource BackgroundIn the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, legislations are being modified around the world to allow patients to receive mental health services through telehealth. Unfortunately, there are no large clinical trial available to reliably document the efficacy of delivering videoconferencing psychotherapy (VCP) for people with panic disorder and agoraphobia (PDA) and whether basic psychotherapeutic processes are altered.MethodsThis 2-arm intent-to-treat non-inferiority study reports on a clinical trial on VCP and documents how therapeutic working alliance and motivation toward psychotherapy are associated to treatment outcome. We hypothesized that VCP would not be inferior to standard face-to-face (FF) cognitive behavior therapy for PDA. No specific hypothesis was stated to address working alliance and treatment mechanisms. VCP was compared to a gold-standard psychotherapy treatment for PDA, which was delivered either in person or in videoconference, with a strict tolerance criterion of about 2 points on the primary outcome measure. Seventy one adult patients were recruited. Measures of working alliance were collected after the first, fifth, and last session. Motivation toward therapy at pre-treatment and working alliance after the fifth therapy session were used as predictors of treatment outcome and compared with change in dysfunctional beliefs toward bodily sensations.ResultsPanic disorder, agoraphobia, fear of sensations and depressed mood all showed significant improvements and large effect-sizes from pre to post-treatment. Gains were maintained at follow-up. No significant differences were found between VCP and FF, and effect sizes were trivial for three of the four outcome measures. Non-inferiority tests confirmed that VCP was no less effective than FF therapy on the primary outcome measure and two of the three secondary outcome measures. Working alliance was very strong in VCP and did not statistically differ from FF. Working alliance and motivation did not predict treatment outcome, which was significantly predicted by the reduction in dysfunctional beliefs. The strength of the therapeutic bond was correlated with change in dysfunctional beliefs.ConclusionMental health professionals can use VCP to provide services to patients with PDA. Building and maintaining a sound working alliance should not be a source concern. Practical recommendations are formulated.ISRCTN Trial Registration NumberISRCTN76456442. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource telehealth, Self-Efficacy, Working Alliance, telepsychotherapy, videoconference psychotherapy, panic disorder and agoraphobia Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.02164 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Psychology https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/94afd192048361996d57bb6ff875a55b.pdf fa71a58e27d636909f02a123087035bc Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource New Coronaviral Infection: Features of Clinical Course, Capabilities of Diagnostics, Treatment and Prevention in Adults and Children Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Anna A. Starshinova, Ekaterina A. Kushnareva, Anna M. Malkova, Irina F. Dovgalyuk, Dmitry A. Kudlay Description An account of the resource First cases of new coronaviral infection were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. The infection had caused the death of more than 100,000 people worldwide by the beginning of April 2020. This review analysed the characteristics of the infection course in adults and children, as well as capabilities of diagnostics, treatment and prevention of COVID-19. It is possible to allocate groups of high risk of development of severe forms of disease (elderly people, people with latent tuberculosis infection, adult patients with severe comorbidity) according to the published data. Currently there is limited epidemiological data on the prevalence, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in the child population. However, it is already possible to conclude that 90% of cases in children population have mild, moderate and asymptomatic course of the disease. Treatment of patients with COVID-19 is limited due to the lack of means for etiotropic therapy and the possibility of using of only symptomatic therapy. There are no vaccines for COVID-19 prevention. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource Children, covid-19, treatment, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, antiviral therapy, BCG vaccine, risk groups, new coronaviral infection Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.15690/vsp.v19i2.2105 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Voprosy Sovremennoj Pediatrii Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Paediatrician" Publishers LLC" Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Pediatrics https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/d98df2e4ece554e7ba0fcc04e4269dd6.pdf a80ccc1dcfd82f494f63a0f6c6b402db Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Hyperlocal Postcode Based Crowdsourced Surveillance Systems in the COVID-19 Pandemic Response Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Ajay Hegde, Ramesh Masthi, Darshan Krishnappa Description An account of the resource The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has rapidly saturated healthcare resources across the globe and has led to a restricted screening process, hindering efforts at comprehensive case detection. This has not only facilitated community spread but has also resulted in an underestimation of the true incidence of disease, a statistic which is useful for policy making aimed at controlling the current pandemic and in preparing for future outbreaks. In this perspective, we present a crowdsourced platform developed by us for the true estimation of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in the community, through active self-reporting and layering other authentic datasets. The granularity of data captured by this system could prove to be useful in assisting governments to identify SARS-CoV-2 hotspots in the community facilitating lifting of restrictions in a controlled fashion. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource surveillance, covid-19, Digital health, pandemic response, crowdsource, post code map Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00286 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Public aspects of medicine https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/bf244c6a897e026930c6ac650b8ac770.pdf fa6ad8599b0cdea288b48f913149d44f Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource A retrospective descriptive study characterizing coronavirus disease epidemiology among people in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Nawfal R Hussein, Ibrahim A Naqid, Zana Sidiq M. Saleem Description An account of the resource Abstract On March 1, 2020, the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection (SARS-CoV-2) infection was diagnosed in the Kurdistan Region of Northern Iraq. The highest number of infections was recorded in Erbil city (233 cases) and Sulaymaniyah (178 cases). Among diagnosed patients, 20% had symptoms. The most common symptoms were fever (9.5%), dry cough (12%), and shortness of breath (6.5%). There was a sharp marked increase in the number of cases after relaxing of the control measures on May 1. The case fatality rate was 1.1% (5/452). Case fatality was significantly associated with advanced age (p=0.001) but not sex (p=0.68). Overall, 385/452 patients (85.2%) recovered without complications. Most patients were asymptomatic. The case fatality rate was low but increased with age. Further research is needed to determine the high recovery and low case fatality rates relative to those reported in other countries.   Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource epidemiology, coronavirus disease, Iraq, Descriptive study, Kurdistan Region Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.4084/mjhid.2020.061 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/35291af7a4c29837d5f8ccd91bebaf08.pdf cf6d1c8e4a50d5e44affc8d76b20d5ec Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Bioengineered probiotics to control SARS-CoV-2 infection Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Shantibhusan Senapati, Jayalaxmi Dash, Manisha Sethi, Subhankar Chakraborty Description An account of the resource The outbreak of 2019 novel corona virus disease (COVID-19) is now a global public health crisis and declared as a pandemic. Several recent studies suggest that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein binds to human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The information obtained from these structural and biochemical studies provides a strong rationale to target SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and ACE2 interaction for developing therapeutics against this viral infection. Here, we propose to discuss the scope of bioengineered probiotics expressing human ACE2 as a novel therapeutic to control the viral outbreak. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource SARS-CoV-2, ACE2, probiotics Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3897/rio.6.e54802 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Science https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/eb12bf04798f43a06f0a89de56f05ba6.pdf 7b1c2a0091b3056794c2bbebe2c431bd Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R0 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Greg Dropkin Description An account of the resource Introduction: The first reported UK case of COVID-19 occurred on 30 January 2020. A lockdown from 24 March was partially relaxed on 10 May. One model to forecast disease spread depends on clinical parameters and transmission rates. Output includes the basic reproduction number R0 and the log growth rate r in the exponential phase.Methods: Office for National Statistics data on deaths in England and Wales is used to estimate r. A likelihood for the transmission parameters is defined from a gaussian density for r using the mean and standard error of the estimate. Parameter samples from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm lead to an estimate and credible interval for R0 and forecasts for cases and deaths.Results: The UK initial log growth rate is r = 0.254 with s.e. 0.004. R0 = 6.94 with 95% CI (6.52, 7.39). In a 12 week lockdown from 24 March with transmission parameters reduced throughout to 5% of their previous values, peaks of around 90,000 severely and 25,000 critically ill patients, and 44,000 cumulative deaths are expected by 16 June. With transmission rising from 5% in mid-April to reach 30%, 50,000 deaths and 475,000 active cases are expected in mid-June. Had such a lockdown begun on 17 March, around 30,000 (28,000, 32,000) fewer cumulative deaths would be expected by 9 June.Discussion: The R0 estimate is compatible with some international estimates but over twice the value quoted by the UK government. An earlier lockdown could have saved many thousands of lives. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource covid-19, modelling, UK, Bayesian, NHS, forecast Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00256 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Epidemiology and Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Korean Society of Epidemiology Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Public aspects of medicine