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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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                <text>Modeling Social Groups, Policies and Cognitive Behavior in COVID-19 Epidemic Phases. Basic Scenarios</text>
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                <text>Franco Bagnoli, Pietro Liò, Daniele  Lorini</text>
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                <text>The Covid-19 pandemic is distinct from Spanish flu of 1918 from many aspects among which the contrast between the overabundance of worldwide exchange of information (infomedia) and the actual scarce knowledge of the pathogen and the infection mechanism. Another important distinction is that the epidemics threaten society components, social groups, communities and jobs in very different ways and different death tolls. With this in mind, we start with simple models of pandemics and we drive the reader to more complex models that take into accounts social compartments and communities. The discrete-state models are built by adding elements, first in a mean-field approximation, then adding age classes and differential contact rates, and finally inserting the social group dimension. The novel element we insert is the effect of restrictions in contacts and travels, filtered by the risk perception, according with the growth of the number of infected or recovered people. Assimilating risk perception with cognitive behavior, we obtain several coarse-grain scenarios, that can be used for instance to calibrate the level of restrictions so not to exceed the capacity of the health system, and to speed the post-emergency recovery.</text>
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                <text>Risk perception, infection dynamics, agent-based models, Epidemic modelling</text>
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                <text>DOI: 10.13128/Substantia-914</text>
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                <text>Firenze University Press</text>
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                <text>Chemistry, History (General) and history of Europe</text>
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                <text>How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach</text>
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                <text>Tom Brewer, Michael B. Bonsall, Chris Huntingford, Thomas Rawson, Dessislava Veltcheva</text>
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                <text>Countries around the world are in a state of lockdown to help limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, as the number of new daily confirmed cases begins to decrease, governments must decide how to release their populations from quarantine as efficiently as possible without overwhelming their health services. We applied an optimal control framework to an adapted Susceptible-Exposure-Infection-Recovery (SEIR) model framework to investigate the efficacy of two potential lockdown release strategies, focusing on the UK population as a test case. To limit recurrent spread, we find that ending quarantine for the entire population simultaneously is a high-risk strategy, and that a gradual re-integration approach would be more reliable. Furthermore, to increase the number of people that can be first released, lockdown should not be ended until the number of new daily confirmed cases reaches a sufficiently low threshold. We model a gradual release strategy by allowing different fractions of those in lockdown to re-enter the working non-quarantined population. Mathematical optimization methods, combined with our adapted SEIR model, determine how to maximize those working while preventing the health service from being overwhelmed. The optimal strategy is broadly found to be to release approximately half the population 2–4 weeks from the end of an initial infection peak, then wait another 3–4 months to allow for a second peak before releasing everyone else. We also modeled an “on-off” strategy, of releasing everyone, but re-establishing lockdown if infections become too high. We conclude that the worst-case scenario of a gradual release is more manageable than the worst-case scenario of an on-off strategy, and caution against lockdown-release strategies based on a threshold-dependent on-off mechanism. The two quantities most critical in determining the optimal solution are transmission rate and the recovery rate, where the latter is defined as the fraction of infected people in any given day that then become classed as recovered. We suggest that the accurate identification of these values is of particular importance to the ongoing monitoring of the pandemic.</text>
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                <text>Epidemiology, optimization, mathematical model, quarantine, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19</text>
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                <text>DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00262</text>
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                <text>Frontiers in Public Health</text>
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                <text>Frontiers Media S.A.</text>
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                <text>Public aspects of medicine</text>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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                <text>أثر جائحة فيروس كورونا (Covid-19) على الاقتصاد العالمي</text>
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                <text>Miloud Benkhira, Saida Tayeb</text>
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            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <text>يعيش العالم اليوم تبعات انتشار وباء فيروس كورونا الذي مس مختلف القطاعات، حيث سبب صدمة كبيرة للاقتصاد العالمي، والذي قد يؤدي بالفعل إلى تحول معدلات النمو العالمي نحو معدلات سالبة بشكل حاد لهذا العام 2020، إذ أن هذه الأزمة ليست أول صدمة إمداد يشهدها العالم، فهناك الصدمات النفطية في السبعينيات، وتسونامي تايلاند وزلزال اليابان عام 2011 وغيرها، ولكن كل هذه الصدمات والأزمات كان لها نطاق جغرافي مُحدد، دون توسع مادي، وكذلك إطار زمني بلغت خلاله الذروة ثم توقفت؛ إلا أن فيروس كورونا أثبت أنه غير قابل للسيطرة، فهو ينتشر في كافة بقاع العالم ليترك آثار الصدمة على معظم الاقتصاديات، وكذلك ليس هناك إطار زمني واضح من المحتمل أن ينتهي خلاله هذا الوباء كغيره من الأزمات التي شهدها العالم، حيث بينا في هذه الورقة البحثية الأثار الناجمة لفيروس كورونا  Covid-19على الاقتصاد العالمي وهذا بحكم انه قد أدى إلى حدوث هلع وانقلاب في موازين اقتصاديات الدول.  تصنيف جال : G01، F02.</text>
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                <text>الاقتصاد العالمي, أزمة, فيروس كورونا covid-19</text>
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                <text>مجلة بحوث الإدارة والاقتصاد</text>
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                <text>faculty of Economics, Commercial and Management Sciences</text>
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            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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                <text>Social Sciences, Commerce</text>
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                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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      <description>A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.</description>
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            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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                <text>دراسة تحليلية مقارنة لمتطلبات الاعتراف والقياس المحاسبي بخسائر الائتمان المتوقعة بين الموضوع FASB – Subject Topic (ASC 326)  والمعيار IFRS9  في ظل تفشي كورونا فيروس Covid-19</text>
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            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
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                <text>Muhammad  Al-Mahdi Al-Amir Ahmed, Salah Ali Ahmed Muhammad</text>
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          <element elementId="41">
            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <text>يتمثل الهدف المحوري لهذه الدراسة في عرض وتحليل الجهود الرامية لتطوير نموذج لخسائر الائتمان المتوقعة (ECl)، ومقارنة التطورات المتعلقة بهذه الجهود المتمثلة في الموضوع (ASC 326) الصادر من مجلس معايير المحاسبة المالية الأمريكي (FASB)، والمعيار الدولي (IFRS 9) الصادر مجلس معايير المحاسبة المالية الدولي (IASB)، وتقييم مدى تأثير تداعيات Covid-19 على الممارسة العملية عند تطبيق (ECL)، ويكتسب هذا الموضوع أهميته باعتبار الاهتمام المتواصل من قبل معدو المعايير المحاسبية وأصحاب المصلحة، استخدمت الدراسة منهجاً جمع بين الاستقراء والاستنباط بالإضافة للمنهج الوصفي لدراسة إشكالية الدراسة والإجابة على التساؤلات، وتتمثل أهم نتائج الدراسة في  أن الخليفة الـتاريخية المرتبطة بالممارسات العملية والتباين في تفسير وفهم المصطلحات عند التطبيق أحدثت فوارق في منهجية قياس الخسائر الائتمانية بين المنهجين الدولي والأمريكي، كذلك توصلت الدراسة لحدوث تأثيرات متوقعة على الاعتراف والقياس المحاسبي بصورة عامة على أثر تداعيات 19- Covid، وعلى منهجية  (ECL)  بصورة خاصة ويتفاوت حجم هذا التأثير حسب الجهود المبذولة من البلدان للسيطرة على  الوباء.  تصنيف جال : G01،M41، E51.</text>
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                <text>2020</text>
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                <text>جائحة الفيروس التاجي (كورونا: covid -19), الاعتراف والقياس المحاسبي, خسائر الائتمان المتوقعة</text>
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      <description>A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.</description>
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          <element elementId="50">
            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="35232">
                <text>Immune-Inflammatory Parameters in COVID-19 Cases: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis</text>
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          <element elementId="39">
            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35233">
                <text>Bo Chen, Qiang Sun, Jiaqi ZHU, Shuangshuang Li, Xudong Feng, Guo-Dong Cao, Mao-Ming Xiong</text>
              </elementText>
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            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <text>Background: The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading on a global scale and poses a great threat to human health. Acute respiratory distress syndrome, characterized by a rapid onset of generalized inflammation, is the leading cause of mortality in patients with COVID-19. We thus aimed to explore the effect of risk factors on the severity of the disease, focusing on immune-inflammatory parameters, which represent the immune status of patients.Methods: A comprehensive systematic search for relevant studies published up to April 2020 was performed by using the PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and China National Knowledge Internet (CNKI) databases. After extracting all available data of immune-inflammatory indicators, we statistically analyzed the risk factors of severe and non-severe COVID-19 patients with a meta-analysis.Results: A total of 4,911 patients from 29 studies were included in the final meta-analysis. The results demonstrated that severe patients tend to present with increased white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil counts, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), procalcitonin (PCT), C-reaction protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and a decreased number of total lymphocyte and lymphocyte subtypes, such as CD4+ T lymphocyte and CD8+ T lymphocyte, compared to the non-severe patients. In addition, the WBC count&amp;gt;10 × 109/L, lymphocyte count&amp;lt;1 × 109/L, PCT&amp;gt;0.5 ng/mL, and CRP&amp;gt;10 mg/L were risk factors for disease progression in patients with COVID-19 (WBC count&amp;gt;10 × 109/L: OR = 2.92, 95% CI: 1.96–4.35; lymphocyte count&amp;lt;1 × 109/L: OR = 4.97, 95% CI: 3.53–6.99; PCT&amp;gt;0.5 ng/mL: OR = 6.33, 95% CI: 3.97–10.10; CRP&amp;gt;10 mg/L: OR = 3.51, 95% CI: 2.38–5.16). Furthermore, we found that NLR, as a novel marker of systemic inflammatory response, can also help predict clinical severity in patients with COVID-19 (OR = 2.50, 95% CI: 2.04–3.06).Conclusions: Immune-inflammatory parameters, such as WBC, lymphocyte, PCT, CRP, and NLR, could imply the progression of COVID-19. NLR has taken both the levels of neutrophil and lymphocyte into account, indicating a more complete, accurate, and reliable inspection efficiency; surveillance of NLR may help clinicians identify high-risk COVID-19 patients at an early stage.</text>
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            <name>Date</name>
            <description>A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="35235">
                <text>2020</text>
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          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35236">
                <text>Meta-analysis, risk factor, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, COVID-19, Immune-inflammatory parameters</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
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          <element elementId="43">
            <name>Identifier</name>
            <description>An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="35237">
                <text>DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00301</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="48">
            <name>Source</name>
            <description>A related resource from which the described resource is derived</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35238">
                <text>Frontiers in Medicine</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="45">
            <name>Publisher</name>
            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35239">
                <text>Frontiers Media S.A.</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="38">
            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="35240">
                <text>Medicine (General)</text>
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        <src>https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/85572fc193e95b999b1a1203e3cdadaf.pdf</src>
        <authentication>80870149fe2c9fd78627f06c2ada559a</authentication>
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          <name>Dublin Core</name>
          <description>The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.</description>
          <elementContainer>
            <element elementId="50">
              <name>Title</name>
              <description>A name given to the resource</description>
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                <elementText elementTextId="1">
                  <text>Coronavirus</text>
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              </elementTextContainer>
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            <element elementId="41">
              <name>Description</name>
              <description>An account of the resource</description>
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                <elementText elementTextId="2">
                  <text>Dominio científico: Coronavirus</text>
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              </elementTextContainer>
            </element>
          </elementContainer>
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      </elementSetContainer>
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      <name>Text</name>
      <description>A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.</description>
    </itemType>
    <elementSetContainer>
      <elementSet elementSetId="1">
        <name>Dublin Core</name>
        <description>The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.</description>
        <elementContainer>
          <element elementId="50">
            <name>Title</name>
            <description>A name given to the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35223">
                <text>Identification of RT-PCR-Negative Asymptomatic COVID-19 Patients via Serological Testing</text>
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            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="39">
            <name>Creator</name>
            <description>An entity primarily responsible for making the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35224">
                <text>Dan Zhou, Ning ZHOU, Xinyi Liu, Pa Wu, Miao Dai, Jin-Ru Wu, Guangqian Qiu, Qingting Yang, Zhonghui Pan</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="41">
            <name>Description</name>
            <description>An account of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35225">
                <text>Asymptomatic individuals with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been identified via nucleic acid testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); however, the epidemiologic characteristics and viral shedding pattern of asymptomatic patients remain largely unknown. In this study, serological testing was applied when identifying nine asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 who showed persistent negative RT-PCR test results for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid and no symptoms of COVID-19. Two asymptomatic cases were presumed to be index patients who had cleared the virus when their close contacts developed symptoms of COVID-19. Three of the asymptomatic cases were local individuals who spontaneously recovered before their presumed index patients developed symptoms of COVID-19. This report presents the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection that were undetected on RT-PCR tests in previous epidemiologic investigations probably due to the transient viral shedding duration.</text>
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          <element elementId="40">
            <name>Date</name>
            <description>A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="35226">
                <text>2020</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
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          <element elementId="49">
            <name>Subject</name>
            <description>The topic of the resource</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35227">
                <text>reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, Asymptomatic, serological test, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
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          <element elementId="43">
            <name>Identifier</name>
            <description>An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35228">
                <text>DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00267</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="48">
            <name>Source</name>
            <description>A related resource from which the described resource is derived</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35229">
                <text>Frontiers in Public Health</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="45">
            <name>Publisher</name>
            <description>An entity responsible for making the resource available</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35230">
                <text>Frontiers Media S.A.</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
          <element elementId="38">
            <name>Coverage</name>
            <description>The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant</description>
            <elementTextContainer>
              <elementText elementTextId="35231">
                <text>Public aspects of medicine</text>
              </elementText>
            </elementTextContainer>
          </element>
        </elementContainer>
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  </item>
</itemContainer>
