https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/9b310e601f2f0f7f6d0fff7a6a83f83f.pdf fa511989936500671076de4a5edd2738 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Epidemiological Identification of A Novel Pathogen in Real Time: Analysis of the Atypical Pneumonia Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019—2020 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Sung-Mok Jung, Ryo Kinoshita, Robin N Thompson, Natalie M. Linton, Yichi Yang, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Hiroshi Nishiura Description An account of the resource Virological tests have now shown conclusively that a novel coronavirus is causing the 2019−2020 atypical pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China. We demonstrate that non-virological descriptive characteristics could have determined that the outbreak is caused by a novel pathogen in advance of virological testing. Characteristics of the ongoing outbreak were collected in real time from two medical social media sites. These were compared against characteristics of eleven pathogens that have previously caused cases of atypical pneumonia. The probability that the current outbreak is due to “Disease X” (i.e., previously unknown etiology) as opposed to one of the known pathogens was inferred, and this estimate was updated as the outbreak continued. The probability (expressed as a percentage) that Disease X is driving the outbreak was assessed as over 29% on 31 December 2019, one week before virus identification. After some specific pathogens were ruled out by laboratory tests on 5 January 2020, the inferred probability of Disease X was over 49%. We showed quantitatively that the emerging outbreak of atypical pneumonia cases is consistent with causation by a novel pathogen. The proposed approach, which uses only routinely observed non-virological data, can aid ongoing risk assessments in advance of virological test results becoming available. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource epidemic, causation, Bayes’ theorem, diagnosis, Prediction, Statistical model Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030637 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Journal of Clinical Medicine Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available MDPI AG Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Medicine Language A language of the resource EN