https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/0526b37f8074e8a3bd97215267a24dae.pdf 92d784ad17303aeacfa010c9a0512b8b Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Forecasting COVID-19 Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Matjaž Perc, Nina Gorišek Miksić, Mitja Slavinec, Andraž Stožer Description An account of the resource The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 a pandemic on March 11th, pointing to the over 118,000 cases in over 110 countries and territories around the world at that time. At the time of writing this manuscript, the number of confirmed cases has been surging rapidly past the half-million mark, emphasizing the sustained risk of further global spread. Governments around the world are imposing various containment measures while the healthcare system is bracing itself for tsunamis of infected individuals that will seek treatment. It is therefore important to know what to expect in terms of the growth of the number of cases, and to understand what is needed to arrest the very worrying trends. To that effect, we here show forecasts obtained with a simple iteration method that needs only the daily values of confirmed cases as input. The method takes into account expected recoveries and deaths, and it determines maximally allowed daily growth rates that lead away from exponential increase toward stable and declining numbers. Forecasts show that daily growth rates should be kept at least below 5% if we wish to see plateaus any time soon—unfortunately far from reality in most countries to date. We provide an executable as well as the source code for a straightforward application of the method on data from other countries. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource COVID-19, Pandemic, disease dynamics, exponential growth, virality Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00127 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived Frontiers in Physics Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Frontiers Media S.A. Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Physics Language A language of the resource EN