https://www.socictopen.socict.org/files/original/0f2c53a0a776f725756e199821955aa5.pdf 91cda101eceebf31951751d6dc159740 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Coronavirus Description An account of the resource Dominio científico: Coronavirus Text A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text. Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes Creator An entity primarily responsible for making the resource Fares Qeadan, Trenton Honda, Lisa H. Gren, Jennifer Dailey-Provost, L. Scott Benson, James A. VanDerslice, Christina A. Porucznik, A. Blake Waters, Steven Lacey, Kimberley Shoaf Description An account of the resource Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2020 Subject The topic of the resource COVID-19, Pandemic, predictive modeling Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17082750 Source A related resource from which the described resource is derived International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available MDPI AG Coverage The spatial or temporal topic of the resource, the spatial applicability of the resource, or the jurisdiction under which the resource is relevant Medicine Language A language of the resource EN