Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Lycoriella</i> Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of <i>Lycoriella</i> Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Roberta Marques, Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte, Adriane da Fonseca Duarte, Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger, Uemmerson Silva da Cunha, Luis Osorio-Olvera, Rusby G. Contreras-Díaz, Daniel Jiménez-García

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

2021

Greenhouse, black fungus gnats, environmental suitability, mushroom pest

10.3390/insects12090831

Insects

MDPI AG

Science