Entropy-Based Pandemics Forecasting

Entropy-Based Pandemics Forecasting

Umberto Lucia, Thomas S. Deisboeck, Giulia Grisolia

A great variety of natural phenomena follows some statistical distributions. In epidemiology, such as for the current COVID 19 outbreak, it is essential to develop reliable predictions of the evolution of an infectious disease. In particular, a statistical projection of the time of maximum diffusion of infected carriers is fundamental in order to prepare healthcare systems and organize a robust public health response. In this paper, we develop a thermodynamic approach based on the infection statistics related to the total citizenry of a country. It represents a novel tool for evaluating the time of maximum diffusion of an epidemic or pandemic.

2020

Epidemiology, coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, epidemics/pandemics, non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamics

DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00274

Frontiers in Physics

Frontiers Media S.A.

Physics