100 Days of COVID-19 in India: Current and Future Trends
subject: forecasting, India, coronavirus, Sigmoid, COVID-19
description: COVID-19 classified under emerging infectious diseases has spread across the world resulting inmany casualties. India reported its first case on 30th January 2020 and has completed 100 days in thispandemic period. The government of India has issued stringent guidelines and imposed a lockdown forlong periods to ensure the practising of social distancing. This paper reviews and discusses the currenttrends in the confirmed cases of India in comparison with the other prominent countries around theglobe. A novel approach using a sigmoid function to predict and forecast the trends for cases in Indiaare also presented in this work. By placing the current time on the sigmoid curve, forecasting the totalnumber of confirmed cases by the end of the pandemic is made. If proper measures and stringentguidelines are not followed, India may have to endure a total confirmed case of up to 4.4 lakh. Theprediction also suggests that 99.9% of the pandemic may end in India by 27th July 2020. The best possibleapproach is to undertake preventive measures by strictly adhering to the guidelines and policies setby the government. Performing hand hygiene, practicing social distancing, surveillance and isolationis the only means to break the chain of transmission and control the pandemic.
creator: Sheetal Gouda, G. Naveen, F. Sneha Kukanur
source: Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology
publisher: Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology
date: 2020
identifier: DOI: 10.22207/JPAM.14.SPL1.43
coverage: Microbiology