A Spatial-Temporal Model for the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain Including Mobility

A Spatial-Temporal Model for the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain Including Mobility

Pep Mulet, Francesc Aràndiga, Antonio Baeza, Isabel Cordero-Carrión, Rosa Donat, M. Carmen Martí, Dionisio F. Yáñez

In this work, a model for the simulation of infectious disease outbreaks including mobility data is presented. The model is based on the SAIR compartmental model and includes mobility data terms that model the flow of people between different regions. The aim of the model is to analyze the influence of mobility on the evolution of a disease after a lockdown period and to study the appearance of small epidemic outbreaks due to the so-called imported cases. We apply the model to the simulation of the COVID-19 in the various areas of Spain, for which the authorities made available mobility data based on the position of cell phones. We also introduce a method for the estimation of incomplete mobility data. Some numerical experiments show the importance of data completion and indicate that the model is able to qualitatively simulate the spread tendencies of small outbreaks. This work was motivated by an open call made to the mathematical community in Spain to help predict the spread of the epidemic.

2020

covid-19, lockdown, mobility, Epidemic model, spatial-temporal SAIR model, outbreak spread

10.3390/math8101677

Epidemiology and Health

Korean Society of Epidemiology

Mathematics