COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

Samuel Soubeyrand, Mélina Ribaud, Virgile Baudrot, Denis Allard, Denys Pommeret, Lionel Roques

Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mortality curves comparisons and real-time short-term forecasts for about 100 countries. Here, the approach is applied to compare the mortality trajectories of second-line and front-line European countries facing the COVID-19 epidemic wave. Using data up to mid-April, we show that the second-line countries generally followed relatively mild mortality curves rather than fast and severe ones. Thus, the continuation, after mid-April, of the COVID-19 wave across Europe was likely to be mitigated and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave (this prediction is corroborated by posterior data).

2020

10.1371/journal.pone.0238410

Epidemiology and Health

Korean Society of Epidemiology

Science, Medicine