Analysis of a Model for Coronavirus Spread

Analysis of a Model for Coronavirus Spread

Ezio Venturino, Youcef Belgaid, Mohamed Helal

The spread of epidemics has always threatened humanity. In the present circumstance of the Coronavirus pandemic, a mathematical model is considered. It is formulated via a compartmental dynamical system. Its equilibria are investigated for local stability. Global stability is established for the disease-free point. The allowed steady states are an unlikely symptomatic-infected-free point, which must still be considered endemic due to the presence of asymptomatic individuals; and the disease-free and the full endemic equilibria. A transcritical bifurcation is shown to exist among them, preventing bistability. The disease basic reproduction number is calculated. Simulations show that contact restrictive measures are able to delay the epidemic’s outbreak, if taken at a very early stage. However, if lifted too early, they could become ineffective. In particular, an intermittent lock-down policy could be implemented, with the advantage of spreading the epidemics over a longer timespan, thereby reducing the sudden burden on hospitals.

2020

epidemics, basic reproduction number, stability, dynamical systems, Compartment model

10.3390/math8050820

Epidemiology and Health

Korean Society of Epidemiology

Mathematics