High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, Ruian Ke

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

2020

Viruses, Respiratory Infections, covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, 2019 novel coronavirus disease

10.3201/eid2607.200282

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Medicine, Infectious and parasitic diseases