CoVid-19 Pandemic Trend Modeling and Analysis to Support Resilience Decision-Making

CoVid-19 Pandemic Trend Modeling and Analysis to Support Resilience Decision-Making

Enrico Zio, Romney B Duffey

Policy decision-making for system resilience to a hazard requires the estimation and prediction of the trends of growth and decline of the impacts of the hazard. With focus on the recent worldwide spread of CoVid-19, we take the infection rate as the relevant metric whose trend of evolution to follow for verifying the effectiveness of the countermeasures applied. By comparison with the theories of growth and recovery in coupled socio-medical systems, we find that the data for many countries show infection rate trends that are exponential in form. In particular, the recovery trajectory is universal in trend and consistent with the learning theory, which allows for predictions useful in the assistance of decision-making of emergency recovery actions. The findings are validated by extensive data and comparison to medical pandemic models.

2020

transmission, covid-19, incubation, growth, theory, infection rates

10.3390/biology9070156

Epidemiology and Health

Korean Society of Epidemiology

Biology (General)